Entry № 17 · logged Oct 5, 2026Free, no sign-upRetirement · Savings
When can you retire? The date is an output, not an input.
Retirement planning usually starts with a date you chose — 65, because everyone chose it — and never checks whether the money agrees. The ledger starts from the money: your age, your savings, your monthly deposit. It walks forward, month by month, and stamps the first age where the balance funds a 25× retirement. That is the date.
On the prefilled ledger — 35, $50,000 saved, $1,000 a month — the answer is 79, not 65. Raising the deposit to $2,246 a month pulls it back to 65.
The retirement ledger, Form RC-17. Left column: where you stand and what you add. Middle column: the assumptions the years will test. Right column: the finish line you are actually chasing. The slip posts your 25× target, the age your money funds it, and the deposit that would retire you on schedule.
| Age | Balance | In today’s dollars |
|---|
The target is 25 times the annual income your savings must produce — the 4% rule, posted in today’s dollars. Balances compound monthly at the return you set and are deflated by inflation for the “today’s dollars” column. The funded age is the first age where today’s-dollars balance reaches the target. “What 65 costs” is the constant monthly deposit that would hit the target exactly at your planned age.
Around this tool
From the ledger
How the ledger dates a retirement
Most retirement math starts with a date you chose — 65, because everyone chose it — and then quietly fails to ask whether the money agrees. The ledger starts from the money. It takes three posted facts: what you have ($50,000 on the prefilled slip), what you add ($1,000 a month), and the years (35 today). It compounds those at your return, month by month, and deflates every future dollar back into today’s dollars, because a target only means something in money you can feel.
The target is the 4% rule’s arithmetic: 25 times the annual income your savings must produce. On the prefilled slip that is $60,000 × 25 = $1,500,000 — in today’s dollars, so the comparison is honest. Then the slip walks forward, month by month, and stamps the first age where the today’s-dollars balance reaches the target. That is the retirement date: an output, not an input. For the prefilled numbers it lands at 79, fourteen years past the planned 65 — stamped OFF TRACK, because no amount of optimism moves that date. Only money does.
That is what the last line is for. “What 65 costs” solves the deposit backwards: $2,246 a month funds the $1,500,000 target exactly at 65 under the same assumptions. The gap between your $1,000 and the $2,246 is the whole plan, posted where you cannot miss it. Two levers, in this order: the deposit is the engine you control; the return is the scenario knob you don’t. The years-between line on the table shows the honest shape of it — the early decades look discouragingly flat and the late ones look impossibly steep, because compounding always arrives late and always arrives.
Disclaimer: the figures here are arithmetic, not financial advice. The 25× frame is a rule of thumb, not a law — your health, taxes, job security, and how long you actually live move your number. The slip posts the multiplication honestly; the judgment stays yours.
Filed answers
Questions from the retirement desk
When can I retire?
The ledger’s answer is a number, not a date you pick: the first age at which your savings reach 25 times your annual retirement spending. On the prefilled slip — 35, $50,000 saved, $1,000 a month at 7% — that age is 79 for a $60,000-a-year retirement, not 65. Raising the monthly deposit to $2,246 pulls the date back to 65. The date moves when the deposit moves, not when the wish moves.
How much do I need to retire?
Twenty-five times the annual spending your savings must produce — the 4% rule’s arithmetic. If you need $60,000 a year from savings, the target is $1,500,000. Subtract income that arrives without savings first: if Social Security or a pension covers $25,000 of that $60,000, the gap is $35,000 and the target drops to $875,000.
Is the 25× rule safe?
It is a planning rule of thumb, not a guarantee. It comes from the Trinity study’s finding that a 50/50 stock-bond portfolio survived 30-year retirements at a 4% withdrawal rate across US history. Longer retirements, high fees, and bad early markets strain it; early retirees often budget 30×. The slip uses 25× as the target and shows the funding date — a stricter target just moves the date.
Why does the slip use 7% returns?
Seven percent is the conventional long-run nominal figure for a stock-heavy portfolio — the planning number, not a promise. Change it and the date moves: at 5% the prefilled slip never funds the target before 100, at 8% it funds at 73. The return is the least controllable input, so treat it as a scenario knob: check that your plan survives at 5% before you celebrate what 8% shows.
Does inflation really matter that much?
Yes — it is the silent third column of every retirement plan. At 2.5% inflation a dollar today is worth about 48 cents in 30 years. The slip projects your balance in nominal dollars and then deflates it into today’s dollars, because the $1,500,000 target only means something in money you can feel. The funded-at-79 figure is in today’s dollars.
Is this financial advice?
No — it is arithmetic on numbers you type, framed by the standard 25× rule of thumb. It does not know your health, your job security, your taxes, or your debts. A fiduciary adviser who knows your whole ledger has the final word; this slip just posts the multiplication honestly.
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