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Average Holiday Spending Statistics

Entry № 30 · logged Oct 18, 2026 · the holiday ledger, filed

The 2025 holiday data tells two stories at once: near-record spending intentions and fast-fading confidence, universal celebration and widening inequality in how it is funded. Every major statistic from the season, traced to its source, with notes on what each one actually measures.

Participation: nearly everyone

Start with the constant. Ninety-two percent of U.S. households celebrate Christmas (Numerator), and 91% of adults plan to celebrate a winter holiday of some kind — Christmas, Hanukkah, or Kwanzaa — per the NRF. These figures barely move year to year, which is why the spending aggregates are so enormous: the holiday economy is not a niche market, it is nearly the entire consumer population spending at once. The NRF's forecast of $1.01 to $1.02 trillion in November–December retail sales is the participation rate converted to dollars.

The celebration is also increasingly digital in its discovery phase. Statista's 2025 data found TikTok at 39% as a holiday shopping platform, ahead of Instagram at 35% and YouTube at 32%. The mall did not die; it moved into the feed. And the shopping itself is splitting by channel and income: 62% of consumers shopped big-box stores (Numerator), 55% shopped online, and Deloitte found high-income households ($100,000+) did 64% of their holiday shopping online versus 49% of low-income households. The holiday is universal; the way it is shopped is stratified.

92% celebrate · $1.01T in sales

Near-universal participation (Numerator/NRF) converts to the first trillion-dollar holiday retail season (NRF forecast, Nov–Dec 2025).

The confidence collapse, in numbers

The most dramatic statistic of the 2025 season is Gallup's: holiday gift spending expectations fell from $1,007 per person in October to $778 in November, a $229 drop — 22.7% — that Gallup called the largest October-to-November decline it has ever recorded, exceeding even 2008. October's $1,007 was within a dollar of the 2024 record; November's $778 was a different economy. The two numbers are a month apart. Nothing about household balance sheets changed that fast; what changed was the feeling about the future.

The other surveys confirm the direction with smaller magnitudes. Deloitte's per-household holiday figure fell 10% to $1,595. PwC's per-person figure (gifts, travel, entertainment) fell 5% to $1,552. The American Research Group's gift-only figure fell 6.8% to $764. The NRF's own $890.49 was down just 1.3% from the 2024 record — but the NRF survey was fielded earlier in the season, before the November mood shift that Gallup caught. Read in field-date order, the surveys describe a season that started at record intentions and deflated as it approached.

Tariffs: the 85% consensus

One number explains most of the confidence drop: 85% of holiday shoppers expected gifts to cost more because of tariffs, per the NRF survey. That is not a partisan split or a fringe view; it is the overwhelming consensus of the shopping public, and it showed up in behavior before it showed up in prices. The NRF's November 2025 reporting noted secondhand gifting rising in popularity as consumers weighed higher prices — a genuine behavioral shift, since pre-loved gifts carry a sustainability story that makes them socially acceptable in a way bargain gifts never were. When 85% of shoppers expect inflation and start buying used without shame, the expectation is doing economic work whether or not the tariffs fully land.

Timing: the great spreading-out

The calendar data shows households managing the season like a cash-flow problem. Forty-two percent of shoppers planned to start before November, and 54% said they shop early specifically to spread out the budget (NRF). Sixty percent expected to finish in December anyway — early starts do not mean early finishes — and 63% planned to do most of their buying on Thanksgiving weekend, up from 59% the year before. Omnisend found 87% of people had started their holiday shopping by Thanksgiving weekend in 2025. The pattern is installment-plan shopping: start early to divide the pain, concentrate the actual buying on the sale weekend, and finish in the December crunch regardless. It is the savings plan from the previous article, executed informally by half the country.

The gift-receiving gap

CensusWide's 2025 data adds the season's most human statistic: 34.1% of men wanted gift vouchers for Christmas, but only 21.8% received them — and 22.1% reported getting no presents at all. Nearly a quarter of men felt, in the survey's delicate phrasing, unloved. The spending figures measure outflow; the receiving figures measure whether any of it landed. A third of men asked for the simplest possible gift — a voucher, the absence of a decision — and the system still missed a third of them. There is a lesson in there about gift budgets: the money is not the hard part. Knowing what the person wants is the hard part, and it is free.

The two holidays: spending by income

The averages also hide a split that the Deloitte data makes visible: high-income households (over $100,000) do 64% of their holiday shopping online, versus 49% of low-income households (under $50,000). That gap is not about preference; it is about the structure of the spending. Online shopping concentrates on shipped gifts with predictable prices, while lower-income households shop disproportionately in big-box stores (62% of all consumers, per Numerator), where the trip itself invites unplanned spending. The practical consequence is that the $890 average describes two different Decembers: one planned, shipped, and tracked, and one walked through a superstore with a cart. The online household's budget is a spreadsheet; the in-store household's budget is a hope. This is also why the tariff anxiety (85% expecting higher prices) bites unevenly — the households with the least room to absorb it are the ones shopping where prices are most visible and most volatile.

None of this shows up in the per-person figures, which is worth remembering when benchmarking. A $1,595-per-household average (Deloitte) in a six-figure household is a different burden than the same figure would be at half the income — yet the surveys report one number for both. The honest use of the statistics is directional: the crowd is spending near records, feeling worse about it, and coping by starting earlier and buying more secondhand. Your household's number should come from your own January, not from theirs.

What the statistics miss

Every figure above shares three blind spots. First, none of the surveys publish a median — the $890.49 is a mean, pulled up by high spenders, and the typical household spends less. Second, none of them count the shadow costs: the travel to get to the family Christmas (PwC folds travel in, the others mostly do not), the time off work, the hosting costs that fall on one household. Third, and most importantly, they measure spending, not debt. The surveys ask what people plan to spend, not how they plan to pay for it — and the $63.33 in interest on a financed $890 holiday never appears in any holiday statistic. The true cost of the season for the card-using household is the survey figure plus the financing, and nobody is surveying that.

The honest summary of the 2025 data: Americans celebrated almost universally, planned to spend near-record amounts, lost confidence in November, expected tariffs to raise prices, started shopping early to spread the cost, bought more secondhand, and concentrated purchases on Thanksgiving weekend. It is the portrait of a country managing the holiday like a budget line — which, for all the tinsel, is exactly what it is.

The new insight

The surveys keep asking “how much will you spend” and never ask “how will you pay,” which means the official statistics describe the holiday everyone plans and nobody's January. The $890 figure is real, but the financed $890 costs $953 — and that $63 gap is invisible in every dataset on this page. The most important holiday statistic is the one no survey collects: the share of December spending that is still being paid for in June. Plan for the number you will actually pay, not the number you tell the pollster.

Sources: NRF 2025 holiday survey via Prosper Insights & Analytics ($890.49/person; $627.93 gifts; $262.56 seasonal; 85% expect tariff price hikes; 42% shop before November; 54% spread the budget; 60% finish in December; 63% wait for Thanksgiving weekend; 91% celebrate; secondhand gifting rising, Nov 2025); NRF holiday forecast ($1.01–$1.02T); Gallup holiday poll (Oct $1,007 → Nov $778; $229 / 22.7% drop, largest Oct–Nov drop ever recorded); Deloitte ($1,595/household, −10%; 64%/49% online by income); PwC ($1,552/person, −5%); American Research Group ($764, −6.8%); Numerator (92% celebrate, 62% big-box); Omnisend (87% started by Thanksgiving weekend 2025); Statista (TikTok 39%, Instagram 35%, YouTube 32%); CensusWide (34.1% of men wanted vouchers, 21.8% got them, 22.1% got nothing).

What percentage of Americans celebrate Christmas?
About 92% of U.S. households celebrate Christmas (Numerator), and 91% of adults plan to celebrate a winter holiday of some kind (NRF). Participation is essentially universal, which is why holiday retail sales top a trillion dollars.
How much did holiday spending drop in 2025?
Gallup recorded the sharpest move: gift-spending expectations fell from $1,007 per person in October to $778 in November, a 22.7% drop and the largest October-to-November decline ever recorded. Deloitte fell 10% to $1,595 per household; PwC fell 5% to $1,552 per person.
Do tariffs affect Christmas prices?
Shoppers think so: 85% expected gifts to cost more because of tariffs in the NRF's 2025 survey. The expectation alone changed behavior — the NRF reported secondhand gifting rising as consumers weighed higher prices.
When do most people do their Christmas shopping?
Forty-two percent start before November, 87% have started by Thanksgiving weekend, 63% do most of their buying on Thanksgiving weekend itself, and 60% still finish in December. Early starts spread the budget; the sale weekend concentrates the buying.
What do the holiday spending surveys miss?
Three things: none publish a median (the $890 is a mean pulled up by big spenders), none count shadow costs like travel and hosting consistently, and none ask how the spending is financed — the $63 in interest on a card-financed $890 holiday appears in no holiday statistic.

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