The College ROI Study: 10,000 Scenarios Through the Engine

What we did

We took this site’s college ledger engine — the same code that powers the calculator — and ran 10,000 family scenarios through it. Each scenario draws a school type, a major, a grant level, and a savings balance, then computes the true four-year cost (sticker minus grants, plus loan interest at 6.52% over ten years, plus the 1.057% origination fee), adds the forgone earnings of four working years at the $50,232 high-school median, and scans years 1 through 40 after graduation for the first year the major’s earnings premium covers the hole. The question is not whether the average degree pays. It is how long the payback takes, and what moves it.

Methodology

The draws, stated completely so the study is reproducible: school type — public in-state 55%, public out-of-state 10%, private nonprofit 35% — at the College Board’s 2025–26 sticker totals ($25,850 / $45,780 / $60,920 per year, books and other costs excluded); major — engineering 12%, computers and math 13%, business 25%, average bachelor’s 50% — with Georgetown CEW lifetime premiums of $55,000 / $50,000 / $35,000 / $30,000 a year against the $1.6M high-school lifetime; grants uniform from 0 to 50% of the sticker; college savings uniform from $0 to $40,000; four years of study; any shortfall borrowed at 6.52% over 120 months. Forgone earnings: $50,232 a year for four years ($200,928). Break-even: the first post-graduation year k (1–40) where k × premium ≥ true cost + forgone earnings. Random draws use a fixed seed (20261014), so every figure on this page is reproducible: same seed, same 10,000 draws, same results.

Two limits, stated up front. First, every scenario models a graduate — the premium belongs to degree-holders, and dropouts are the expensive case the study does not cover. Second, the premium is a median applied uniformly; individual outcomes vary enormously around it. The study describes the shape of the bet, not your hand.

The results

Measure	Result
Median break-even year (all scenarios)	Year 11
Scenarios breaking even within 10 years	49.0%
Scenarios never breaking even within 40 years	0.0%
Median true four-year cost (incl. interest & fees)	$133,558

By school type	Median break-even
Public in-state (n=5,505)	Year 10
Public out-of-state (n=1,032)	Year 12
Private nonprofit (n=3,463)	Year 14

By major	Median break-even
Engineering (n=1,232)	Year 7
Computers & math (n=1,242)	Year 7
Business (n=2,459)	Year 10
Average bachelor’s (n=5,067)	Year 12

Five things the numbers say

1. The median degree breaks even in year 11 — worth it, but not fast. Half of all modeled scenarios are still underwater a decade after graduation. The $1.2 million lifetime premium is real, but it arrives as a $30,000-to-$55,000 annual flow against a hole that includes four years of skipped paychecks. Families who expect the degree to “pay for itself” quickly are modeling the premium without the hole.

2. The school moves the median four years. Public in-state scenarios break even in year 10 at the median; private scenarios take until year 14. That four-year gap is the price of the sticker difference, compounded by the interest on the larger loan. It is also the cleanest argument in the data for the public flagship: the same major, four fewer years underwater.

3. The major moves the median five years. Engineering and computers scenarios break even in year 7; the average bachelor’s takes until year 12. The major is the larger lever — five years versus the school’s four — which means the choice of field deserves more family deliberation than the choice of campus. The students choosing between a beloved major and a lucrative one are choosing between year 7 and year 12, whether anyone says so out loud or not.

4. Grants are the silent variable. The study’s grant draws run 0–50% of sticker, and they do quiet work in the background: a private-priced engineering degree with full grants breaks even in year 6 in the engine — faster than the median public scenario. Every net-price-calculator session, every scholarship application, is a direct purchase of earlier break-even years. Aid is not a discount on the price; it is a discount on the time.

5. Nobody fails — among graduates. Zero of the 10,000 scenarios failed to break even within 40 working years. That is not because college is risk-free; it is because every modeled major carries a positive lifetime premium and every modeled student finishes. The risk the study excludes is the real risk: leaving without the degree. For graduates, the question is when, not whether. For non-completers, the economics invert completely — some-college-no-degree earns $1,062 a week against the high-school $966, a $96 premium for debt with no credential.

Sources: scenario engine identical to this site’s college ledger (College Board 2025–26 sticker totals; 6.52% 2026–27 federal loan rate over 120 months; 1.057% origination fee; Georgetown CEW lifetime premiums $55k/$50k/$35k/$30k per year vs $1.6M high-school lifetime; BLS 2025 high-school median $966/week); draws: school 55/10/35, majors 12/13/25/50, grants uniform 0–50% of sticker, savings uniform $0–$40,000, 4 years, seed 20261014; BLS some-college-no-degree median $1,062/week.