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The Thanksgiving ledger · Table No. 35

How Much Does Thanksgiving Dinner Cost?

The Farm Bureau has priced the same Thanksgiving menu every year since 1986. Here is the 2025 itemized bill for ten — $55.18 — what moved, what did not, and what to expect for 2026.

The short answer

There is an official number for this, and it is unusually trustworthy. The American Farm Bureau Federation has priced the same classic Thanksgiving menu every November since 1986 — 40 years of the identical shopping list — using volunteer shoppers who check prices in all 50 states and Puerto Rico during the first week of November. The 2025 survey, released November 19, 2025, puts the classic dinner for ten at $55.18, about $5.52 per person.

That is down 5 percent from 2024, and it is the third straight year of declines. But three years of declines have not erased the spike: the 2022 survey hit a record $64.05 for ten, and the 2025 number sits about $2 above the 2021 figure of $53.31. The table has gotten cheaper two years running without ever getting back to where it was.

The itemized menu, line by line

The survey's power is that it is itemized. Here is every line of the 2025 classic menu, with the year-over-year move:

Item2025 priceChange
16-lb frozen turkey$21.50down 16.3%
14-oz cubed stuffing mix$3.71down 9%
2 frozen pie crusts$3.37down 0.8%
Half pint whipping cream$1.87up 3.2%
1 lb frozen peas$2.03up 17.2%
1 dozen dinner rolls$3.56down 14.6%
Misc. ingredients$3.61down 4.7%
30-oz pumpkin pie mix$4.16up 0.1%
1 gallon whole milk$3.73up 16.3%
3 lb sweet potatoes$4.00up 37%
1-lb veggie tray (carrots & celery)$1.36up 61.3%
12-oz fresh cranberries$2.28down 2.8%

Half the items fell, half rose. The turkey did the heavy lifting: at $21.50 it is 39 percent of the entire meal, so a 16.3 percent drop in the bird alone pulled $4.19 off the 2024 total of $58.08. Wheat helped too — dinner rolls fell 14.6 percent and stuffing mix 9 percent as low wheat prices flowed through to flour-based foods. AFBF economist Faith Parum called it "encouraging to see some relief in the price of turkeys, as it is typically the most expensive part of the meal."

What got more expensive, and why

The risers tell their own story, and it is mostly weather and biology. Sweet potatoes jumped 37 percent to $4.00, partly because hurricane damage hit North Carolina, the country's top sweet-potato state. The veggie tray — one pound of carrots and celery — soared 61.3 percent to $1.36, a move the Farm Bureau tied to broader supply-chain pressure, labor shortages, and volatile produce markets. Frozen peas rose 17.2 percent and a gallon of milk 16.3 percent.

The boxed insight

The veggie tray is the cheapest line on the table ($1.36) and the fastest-rising (+61.3%). That is not a coincidence: the Farm Bureau notes that small price shifts make large percentage moves precisely because these items trade at low prices. The veggie tray went from $0.84 to $1.36 — a 52-cent move that reads as a crisis in percentage terms and a rounding error in dollars. When you budget Thanksgiving, sort by dollars, not percentages. The turkey's 16.3 percent decline saved you $4.19; the veggie tray's 61.3 percent spike cost you 52 cents.

The expanded menu: $77.09

The classic menu is a fixed 1986 basket, but the Farm Bureau also prices an expanded menu that adds a boneless ham, Russet potatoes, and green beans — closer to what many families actually serve, since mashed potatoes and a green-bean dish sit next to the sweet potatoes on a lot of tables. The expanded menu ran $77.09 for ten in 2025, $21.91 over the classic, or about $7.71 per person. It fell from 2024 as well.

The regional spread

The same menu costs different money in different places. The 2025 classic averaged $50.01 in the South, $54.38 in the Midwest, $60.82 in the Northeast, and $61.75 in the West, against the $55.18 national average. The South-to-West gap is $11.74 on the identical menu — 23.5 percent — driven by produce and dairy prices that vary far more by region than the turkey does. State-level surveys sharpen the picture: Ohio's Farm Bureau priced the classic at $55.87, and Arkansas at $56.77.

What the survey does not include

The menu is a 1986 time capsule, and it shows. There is no green bean casserole, no mashed potatoes (the classic uses sweet potatoes only), no second pie, no appetizers, no drinks — alcoholic or otherwise — and no coffee for the end of the meal. A real table costs more than $55.18, and the gap is the host's own additions. The survey is a benchmark, not a budget: use it to price the core, then add your extras on top. The calculator on this site does exactly that, with editable add-on lines.

Forty years of the same shopping list

The survey's real value is its stubbornness. The classic menu has not changed since 1986: turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, and pumpkin pie with whipped cream. Forty years of the identical basket means the year-over-year moves are pure price signal, uncontaminated by changing tastes or package sizes. Few economic time series in American life are this clean — the Consumer Price Index changes its basket constantly, but the Farm Bureau just sends volunteers back to the same shelves.

The methodology is deliberately informal: volunteer shoppers check prices in stores and online during the first week of November, and the Farm Bureau averages them nationally and by region. It is not a census, and the Farm Bureau says so. But forty editions of the same informal survey have made it the reference every newsroom cites each November, because it answers the one question everyone asks at the same time: what does the table cost this year? The 2025 edition was the 40th, and the expanded menu — ham, Russet potatoes, green beans — is the survey's one concession to how families actually eat.

What about 2026?

The 2026 survey will land in mid-November 2026, about a week before Thanksgiving on November 26. Until then, the 2025 itemized menu is the freshest hard data available, and it is the pricing engine behind this site's calculator. One data point worth watching: the USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service data showed turkey feature prices declining further during the second week of November 2025, after the survey's first-week-of-November price checks. Grocery stores routinely price turkeys even lower in the days right before Thanksgiving — the bird is the classic loss leader — so shoppers who buy the week of the holiday have historically beaten the survey number.

Thanksgiving cost questions

How much does Thanksgiving dinner cost for 10?
The American Farm Bureau Federation's 2025 survey prices a classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 at $55.18, about $5.52 per person. That is down 5 percent from 2024 and the third straight year of declines, though still above the 2021 figure of $53.31 and well below the 2022 record of $64.05.
What is the most expensive part of Thanksgiving dinner?
The turkey, by a wide margin: a 16-pound frozen bird averaged $21.50 in 2025, or 39 percent of the entire $55.18 menu. The next biggest lines are pumpkin pie mix ($4.16), sweet potatoes ($4.00), milk ($3.73), and stuffing mix ($3.71).
How much does the expanded Thanksgiving menu cost?
Adding a boneless ham, Russet potatoes, and green beans to the classic menu brings the 2025 total to $77.09 for ten, or about $7.71 per person, $21.91 over the classic.
When does the 2026 Thanksgiving dinner survey come out?
The Farm Bureau releases its annual survey in mid-November; the 2025 edition came out November 19, 2025. The 2026 survey should land around the same time, roughly a week before Thanksgiving on November 26, 2026.

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